Sustainable Aviation, which was the buzzword at the turn of the decade, seems to be cooling off. While everyone wants to look for a solution to cut down on aviation emissions, the work done towards it is not matching the speed of execution needed, and so, I wonder if things are working in the right direction or not.

How is aviation looking at lower emissions?

In 2021, commercial aviation came together to state that they would go to net zero by 2050 in an initiative that was brought together by IATA, the aviation industry representation body.

There were three major ways to cut down emissions, broadly. First, keep the current aircraft fleet young, which means the fuel consumption goes down because newer engines such as the CFM-LEAP and Pratt & Whitney’s GTF technology consume 15-18% lesser fuel than the earlier classic engines. The upgrades are broadly a decade old now and continue to mature.

The second technique was to look at the increased use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is the main term
used by the aviation industry to describe a non-conventional (fossil-derived) aviation fuel. Current technology allows fuel to be
produced from other alternative sources, including non-biological resources; thus, the term is adjusted to highlight the sustainable
nature of these fuels.

The third approach has been to move away from combustion engines altogether, where alternative technologies are being explored, such as hydrogen-powered aircraft, electricity-powered aircraft and so on. Airbus, in 2021, launched the ZeroE initiative, where, every year, it intended to showcase the work done towards moving in this direction. They were working towards hydrogen-powered aircraft, electric powerplants and more, to eventually decide on what technology to move forward with.

Apart from all of these methods, aviation companies such as seat makers and others are continuously working on making more sustainable products to be fitted on board, and also upcycling whatever they remove from aircraft, rather than just throwing it away.

SAF is floundering

Sustainable Aviation Fuel has been around for a long while now, but production is still abysmally low. The input (feedstock) availability seems to be the challenge. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has updated its outlook on the ramp-up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production in 2025. According to the latest figures, global SAF output is expected to reach 2 million tonnes (2.5 billion litres) next year—double that of 2024, but still only 0.7% of total fuel consumption by airlines.

The problem lies with Europe’s SAF mandates

Most of the available SAF is currently being directed towards Europe, where both the European Union and the UK introduced SAF mandates starting January 1, 2025. However, this policy has come with unintended (and expensive) consequences.

To meet these new mandates, airlines are expected to procure around 1 million tonnes of SAF in Europe alone in 2025, costing an estimated USD 1.2 billion at market rates. But that’s not all, compliance fees and markups imposed by SAF suppliers could add another USD 1.7 billion to the bill. That makes SAF nearly five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel in the region. That cost has landed on our air tickets, as well. For instance, here is the extra I paid for a 1-hour travel ticket inside Europe a couple of months ago.

IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said this on the sidelines of the IATA AGM earlier this week,

While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7% of aviation’s total fuel needs. And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill. The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate

IATA argues that the money being spent on compliance costs could have been better utilised, specifically, in abating an additional 3.5 million tonnes of carbon emissions.

Willie also said, in the press conference held later,

I think there is great concern that we’re not making sufficient progress, not as airlines, but as the value chain that needs to support the airlines transitioning to Net Zero in 2050. And that’s the reason we’re calling it out. We clearly want to see more coordinated action on the part of governments. I think we’re not being helped by countries and regions with mandates without accompanying incentives to stimulate production. I think we’ve been able to demonstrate that mandates have really not done anything to promote the additional production of sustainable aviation fuels, but have merely added additional costs with no environmental benefit. And that’s a great concern for all of the CEOs in the airline industry. I think we’re also concerned that a number of the key players who have said nice words about net zero in 2050 aren’t matching those words with actions. And we’ve made clear from the very beginning that the airline industry will not be able to achieve net-zero in 2050 unless everybody in the wider value chain supports the industry in doing that. So I think today, today it’s, you know, I use the word sounding the alarm. I think it is a wake-up call. We still have time to get there, but we do need to see more action on the part of all of the partners in the value chain to make sure that the industry can get there.

Of course, the unavailability of SAF in real usable quantities means that airlines are unable to use it meaningfully. For instance, Pieter Elbers, on behalf of IndiGo, said there was no point SAF was going to be used in India until it was produced here.

It doesn’t make any sense for us to start shipping in SAF from outside the country to India and then to say, we’re great, we’re having a bit of SAF, doesn’t make any sense.

Where are we with alternative technology?

One of the most prominent works has been going on with the CFM RISE project, which tests technologies that could be available by the second half of the next decade. The programme goals include improving fuel efficiency by more than 20 per cent compared to today’s most efficient engines, as well as ensuring compatibility with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) to provide further emissions reductions.

Airbus promised entry into service in 2035 of the various technologies it started to work on in 2020. However, as the WSJ reported earlier this year, the OEM, after spending 1.7 Billion Euros, has cut down on funding and reassigned part of the talent assigned to the R&D were moved to other projects. This means a delay of up to a decade to the launch of the “sustainable aircraft”.

Bottomline

While it’s encouraging that SAF production is set to double in 2025, the economics and policy frameworks still present serious challenges. IATA is sounding the alarm on the European model of mandates that push costs higher, and is instead pushing for smarter, global-scale solutions. On the other hand, the emergence of new technologies has also slowed down for the time being, with major vendors putting their plans on ice to do R&D on the new aircraft technologies, while they focus on filling up the current backlog.

What do you make of the sustainability ambitions of the aviation industry? Do you think it is floundering as well?

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